Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl
Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Eunice Sato Academy Of Math & Science → Rancho Dominguez Prep School → Lifeline Education Charter Sch → John Glenn High School → Polaris High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-1.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~641 | -8 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~626 | -23 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~611 | -38 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Los Angeles County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl is shrinking (-0.6%) but Los Angeles County is shrinking faster (-8.2%), so Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl is winning roughly 7.6 pp of relative market share. Combined with 94.8% stability (county median 87.3%), this reflects a school that families actively chose during a market contraction. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working.
36 of 698 students who enrolled at Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (5.2% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 10.2 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
+30.1 pp above peer median (21.3%) · Ranked #4 of 8 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
51.4%
Higher than 89% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl's UC Reach of 51.4% is in the top quartile statewide (median 18.5%; top 25% bar 32.0%) — but it's still below the top-10% bar of 53.3%.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 51 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl's UC Reach is higher than 89% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Long Beach · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #4 of 8): 51% vs. a peer median of 21%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 27 points since 2018.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl is admitting at roughly +10 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (4.09) alone would predict (33% actual vs. 22% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 1% (165→164 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +9%.
- ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. Los Angeles County's senior population shrank 8% over the same window — Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl only shrank 1%. So Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl picked up about 8 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
- ▸At its recent rate (-1.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~626 by 2029 — about 23 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 23 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl | Public | 649 | 51.4% | -1% |
| Peer-group median | 21.3% | +9% | ||
| Eunice Sato Academy Of Math & Science | Public | 576 | — | +15% |
| Rancho Dominguez Prep School | Public | 594 | 18.8% | -8% |
| Lifeline Education Charter Sch | Public | 720 | 21.3% | +33% |
| John Glenn High School | Public | 819 | 16.2% | -34% |
| Polaris High School | Public | 727 | — | +687% |
| Theodore Roosevelt Senior High | Public | 527 | 21.3% | -3% |
| Abraham Lincoln High School | Public | 501 | 110.0% | -4% |
| Compton Early College High Sch | Public | 539 | 54.9% | +85% |
| Gretchen Whitney High School | Public | 1009 | 126.1% | +4% |
| Renaissance High School For The Arts | Public | 404 | — | +20% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.06 | 22.5% | 13.7% | +8.8pp | Over |
| UCLA | 4.08 | 11.9% | 9.7% | +2.3pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 4.09 | 39.6% | 18.2% | +21.4pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 4.09 | 41.4% | 38.1% | +3.3pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 4.14 | 36.5% | 32.6% | +3.9pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 4.06 | 66.7% | 33.4% | +33.3pp | Over |
Where Ernest S Mcbride Sr High Schl sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 10.3 points above what their GPAs predict (32.6% actual vs. 22.3% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 40 | 9 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.1% | 66.7% | 4.06 | 4.23 |
| UCLA → Elite | 67 | 8 | 6 | 11.9% | 4.5% | 75.0% | 4.08 | 4.28 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 53 | 21 | 4 | 39.6% | 11.9% | 19.0% | 4.09 | 4.30 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 29 | 12 | — | 41.4% | 6.8% | — | 4.09 | 4.29 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 63 | 23 | 9 | 36.5% | 13.0% | 39.1% | 4.14 | 4.27 |
| UC Davis → | 27 | 18 | 4 | 66.7% | 10.2% | 22.2% | 4.06 | 4.25 |