Enrollment trend & projection

Total enrollment (9–12)
509 (2018)501 (2026)
-1.6%
Grade 12 (graduating class)
242 (2018)231 (2026)
-4.5%

If this trend holds (-0.2%/yr, Total enrollment)

At per-pupil funding of $ / student:

Horizon Projected Total enrollment Change Funding impact / yr
1 yr (2027) ~500 -1 $0
3 yr (2029) ~498 -3 $0
5 yr (2031) ~496 -5 $0

Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.

Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25

Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Los Angeles County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.

Mixed signal
Outperforming on demand; some mid-year churn to look at.

Abraham Lincoln High School is recruiting families faster than Los Angeles County is shrinking (school -4.5% vs. county -8.2%), but 55 students didn't make it to year-end. The recruitment engine works; the mid-year exits are worth understanding. Chronic absenteeism is rising (20.1%, +11.0 pts since 2016-17) — a watch signal worth monitoring as a leading indicator.

-4.5%  school enrollment (2018–2026)
-8.2%  Los Angeles County baseline
+3.7pp  gap vs. county
89.9%  retention (county median 89.1%)
Enrollment — indexed to 100 at 2018
Stability rate
89.9%
488 of 543 students

55 of 543 students who enrolled at Abraham Lincoln High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (10.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.

Los Angeles County median
89.1% · school is in the 54th percentile of 676 HS
Statewide median
88.7% · in the 58th percentile of 2,648 HS

Stability by student group

Socio. disadvantaged (512) 90.4%
Hispanic / Latino (502) 90.8%
English learners (137) 90.5%
Students w/ disabilities (77) 90.9%
Black / African Am. (25) 68.0%

Nearest peer high schools

Theodore Roosevelt Senior High 84.9% Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts And Mathematics At Legacy High School Complex 90.8% Compton Early College High Sch 95.8% Alliance Cindy And Bill Simon Technology Academy High 87.9% Animo Watts College Preparatory Academy 94.7%

Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.

Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25

Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: total enrollment.

Chronic absent
20.1%
105 of 522 students

Absenteeism is up 11.0 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.

Los Angeles County median
22.7% · school is better than 60% of 669 HS
Statewide median
20.9%
Chronic absenteeism by year (raw %)

Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).

District financial profile — Paramount Unified (FY2020)

From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.

Total revenue
$268.6M
+18.4% since FY2017
Per-pupil revenue
$19,518
13,761 students enrolled
Revenue mix
State: 64.5%
Local: 19.7%
Federal: 15.8%
Instruction share
57.7%
of current spending · $9,182/pupil
Long-term debt
$233.2M
+42.7% since FY2017
Total revenue by year ($M)
Total expenditure by year ($M)

Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Paramount Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).

University of California outcomes · Class of 2025
★ Top 5% UC Reach 🏆 #7 in California
UC Reach
110%
265 admits / 241 seniors
+89.9 pp above peer median (20.1%) · Ranked #1 of 5 similar schools
5-year trend
2021 · 85.5% 2025 · 110.0%
Where this sits on the California curve
CA median
18.5%
Top 10%
53.3%
This school
110.0%
0%50%100% →
CA median 18.5% Top 10% ≥ 53.3% This school 110.0%

Higher than 99% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)

📊 What this number means

110.0% is exceptional and very rare. For every 100 seniors at Abraham Lincoln High School, the school is generating roughly 110 admissions to California's six most selective UCs (UCB, UCLA, UCSD, UCSB, UCI, UCD). The typical strong senior here is winning admission at multiple top campuses — a result fewer than 1% of California high schools achieve.

This places Abraham Lincoln High School in the elite tier statewide — the top-1% threshold is 102.7%.

Overall, Abraham Lincoln High School's UC Reach is higher than 99% of California high schools (1105 ranked).

Why is this over 100%? Out of every 100 seniors at this school, the class is generating more than 100 admissions to California's six most selective UCs. The typical strong senior here is being admitted at multiple top-6 campuses — UCLA + UCSD, or Berkeley + UCSB + UC Irvine, for example. It's a rare achievement; fewer than 1% of California high schools clear 100% UC Reach.
UC Application Reach
476.8%
1149 applications
Exceptionally ambitious student body. The typical senior is applying to about 5 of the 6 most selective UCs — a culture of pursuing every major UC option.
In context: CA median 78.3% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 245.8% · Los Angeles Co. Top 10% ≥ 252.7% · higher than 99% of CA HS.
UC Admit Rate
23.1%
265 / 1149 applications
In context: CA median 26.0% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 40.5% · higher than 33% of CA HS.
UC Yield Rate
31.7%
84 enrolled of 265 admitted
Yield vs. Enrollment Reach: Yield answers "of UC admits, what % chose UC?" — denominator is just the admits. A small admitted cohort can post a low yield even when the school sends a healthy share of its class to UC.
UC Enrollment Reach
34.9%
84 enrollees / 241 seniors
Enrollment Reach vs. Yield: Reach answers "of the whole senior class, what % ended up at UC?" — denominator is everyone. High Yield with low Enrollment Reach is common at elite privates: most admits matriculate, but the school sends most of its class to non-UC selective colleges.
Student-Counselor Ratio
501:1
1.0 FTE counselors · 501 students
In context: CA median 338:1 · 163 more students per counselor · ASCA target 250:1.
UC 6-Yr Grad Rate
92%
81% finished in 4 yrs · N=26 entered 2019
In context: CA median 88.6% · +3.7 pp above.
Selective UC Reach (UCSD, UCSB, UCI, UCD)
71.0
per 100 seniors · campus-level total
In context: CA median 15.7 · Top 10% statewide ≥ 42.4 · higher than 98% of CA HS.
Elite UC Reach (UCB + UCLA)
19.9
per 100 seniors · campus-level total
In context: CA median 3.5 · Top 10% statewide ≥ 11.1 · higher than 98% of CA HS.
Senior Class Size
241
CDE grade 12 (exact)
Total School Enrollment
502
All grades · CDE Census Day

Abraham Lincoln High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot

Public · Los Angeles · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools

  • On UC Reach, Abraham Lincoln High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #1 of 5): 110% vs. a peer median of 20%.
  • Its UC Reach has risen 35 points since 2018.
  • Senior-class enrollment is down 4% (242→231 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +11%.
  • In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. Los Angeles County's senior population shrank 8% over the same window — Abraham Lincoln High School only shrank 4%. So Abraham Lincoln High School picked up about 4 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
  • At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~498 by 2029 — about 3 fewer students than today.

Enrollment projection

501 students (2026)
~498 projected (2029)
at -0.2%/yr

That's about 3 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.

Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.

Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools

School Type Size UC Reach Enroll. trend
Abraham Lincoln High School Public 501 110.0% -4%
Peer-group median 20.1% +11%
Theodore Roosevelt Senior High Public 527 21.3% -3%
Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts And Mathematics At Legacy High School Complex Public 509 +9%
Compton Early College High Sch Public 539 54.9% +85%
Alliance Cindy And Bill Simon Technology Academy High Public 463 +8%
Animo Watts College Preparatory Academy Public 550 -4%
Rancho Dominguez Prep School Public 594 18.8% -8%
Russell Westbrook Why Not? High Public 429 +12%
Alliance Margaret M. Bloomfield Technology Academy High Public 590 +20%
Visual And Performing Arts At Legacy High School Complex Public 354 +15%
Magnolia Science Academy 3 Public 395 6.0% +26%

UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →

Avg. Applicant GPA · top-6 UCs
3.72
Avg. Admitted GPA · top-6 UCs
4.08

Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus

How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?

Campus Applicant GPA (avg) Actual admit rate CA peer avg Δ Verdict
UC Berkeley 3.82 16.4% 11.7% +4.7pp On target
UCLA 3.75 7.9% 9.1% -1.2pp On target
UC San Diego 3.73 25.7% 27.3% -1.5pp On target
UC Santa Barbara 3.65 32.5% 28.0% +4.5pp On target
UC Irvine 3.72 11.6% 18.3% -6.7pp Under
UC Davis 3.64 42.5% 32.4% +10.2pp Over
"Applicant GPA" is the average GPA of this school's UC applicant pool — not an individual student GPA. "CA peer avg" is the application-weighted statewide admit rate at this school-pool GPA, fit separately per campus. At any given pool GPA, real admit rates span widely (UCSD ranges 8% → 65% across CA schools) because UCs use comprehensive review — context-of-opportunity, geography, demographics, and applicant essays all weigh in beyond GPA. A large negative residual flags this school is admitted at a meaningfully lower rate than other CA schools at the same pool GPA — not that students here were "rejected at expected rate X." "Over" / "Under" use a ±5-point band. Campuses with fewer than 5 applicants are omitted.

Where Abraham Lincoln High School sits vs. all California schools

Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (23.1% actual vs. 21.2% expected).

UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025

UC Admit Rate %
UC Reach % (where available)
UC Admits (count, right axis)

Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.

Campus Breakdown — 2025

Campus Applicants Admits Enrollees Admit Rate UC Reach Yield Avg GPA (App) Avg GPA (Adm)
UC Berkeley → Elite 201 33 23 16.4% 13.7% 69.7% 3.82 4.10
UCLA → Elite 190 15 7 7.9% 6.2% 46.7% 3.75 4.16
UC San Diego → Selective 202 52 17 25.7% 21.6% 32.7% 3.73 4.17
UC Santa Barbara → Selective 154 50 3 32.5% 20.7% 6.0% 3.65 4.09
UC Irvine → Selective 181 21 4 11.6% 8.7% 19.0% 3.72 4.11
UC Davis → 221 94 30 42.5% 39.0% 31.9% 3.64 4.00
⚠ Campus-level totals may count one student admitted to multiple UC campuses more than once. Admit Volume metrics are not the same as UC Reach, which requires unique-student counts. See methodology →

What This Means

A large share of the senior class applies to UC, indicating strong college-going culture and UC pipeline development.
A large share of the class applies to UC, so the admit rate runs lower than the application volume alone might suggest — expected when many students apply broadly, including to reach campuses. UC Reach (which credits every admit relative to the class) is the truer read of how the class fares: a strong Reach alongside a moderate admit rate is healthy, not a contradiction.
UC Reach is very strong — more than 110% of seniors are earning UC admission. This places the school among California's highest-performing high schools on this metric.
Students are earning UC admission but enrolling elsewhere at a notable rate. This may reflect competition from private colleges, out-of-state flagships, cost considerations, or UC campus fit. Student outcome surveys can clarify.
Berkeley and UCLA admit volume is strong — a clear high-end signal for this school's academic preparation.
UC Reach has improved meaningfully compared to the prior year — a positive trajectory worth monitoring and reinforcing.
Note: admit counts used here are campus-level totals. A student admitted to both UCLA and UCSD is counted twice. When UCOP unique-student data becomes available it will be loaded automatically and the labels will update.
Compare with other schools → See Los Angeles County rankings →

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