INSTRUCTIONAL & GUIDANCE CENTER
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -5.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 33 students:
≈ 8 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,069 per student in district revenue, the 8 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $120,552/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROMA H S ROMA |
Public | 4.1 | 1,721 | -1.0% |
| IDEA RIO GRANDE CITY COLLEGE PREPARATORY RIO GRANDE CITY |
Public · charter | 7.0 | 292 | +63.1% |
| PREPARATORY FOR EARLY COLLEGE H S RIO GRANDE CITY |
Public | 7.4 | 430 | -5.5% |
| RIO GRANDE CITY H S RIO GRANDE CITY |
Public | 12.8 | 1,670 | -4.7% |
| GRULLA H S RIO GRANDE CITY |
Public | 19.6 | 716 | -0.3% |
| HOPE ACADEMY LA JOYA |
Public | 32.3 | 57 | — |
| THELMA ROSA SALINAS STEM EARLY COLLEGE H S LA JOYA |
Public | 32.3 | 471 | +3.3% |
| JIMMY CARTER EARLY COLLEGE H S LA JOYA |
Public | 32.4 | 327 | -8.7% |