ROCHELLE SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -6.2%/year, projecting from 2024's 160 students:
≈ 44 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,426 per student in district revenue, the 44 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $678,744/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRADY H S BRADY |
Public | 11.3 | 271 | -8.1% |
| LOHN SCHOOL LOHN |
Public | 13.9 | 45 | — |
| RICHLAND SPRINGS SCHOOL RICHLAND SPRINGS |
Public | 15.3 | 51 | — |
| BROOKESMITH SCHOOL BROOKESMITH |
Public | 23.0 | 47 | — |
| SAN SABA H S SAN SABA |
Public | 28.3 | 217 | +2.8% |
| MASON H S MASON |
Public | 33.2 | 192 | -15.8% |
| NEW HORIZONS RANCH SCHOOL GOLDTHWAITE |
Public | 33.5 | 13 | — |
| CHEROKEE SCHOOL CHEROKEE |
Public | 34.0 | 44 | — |