NEW HORIZONS RANCH SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -11.1%/year, projecting from 2024's 40 students:
≈ 18 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $24,180 per student in district revenue, the 18 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $435,240/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MULLIN MAIN MULLIN |
Public | 7.1 | 28 | — |
| GOLDTHWAITE H S GOLDTHWAITE |
Public | 7.8 | 168 | -9.7% |
| ZEPHYR SCHOOL ZEPHYR |
Public | 15.8 | 62 | — |
| SAN SABA H S SAN SABA |
Public | 18.2 | 217 | +2.8% |
| PRIDDY SCHOOL PRIDDY |
Public | 19.1 | 41 | — |
| RICHLAND SPRINGS SCHOOL RICHLAND SPRINGS |
Public | 19.4 | 51 | — |
| BROWNWOOD ACCELERATED H S BROWNWOOD |
Public | 22.3 | 17 | — |
| BROWNWOOD H S BROWNWOOD |
Public | 22.6 | 935 | -6.7% |