KELTON ISD
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.0%/year, projecting from 2024's 129 students:
≈ 12 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $26,084 per student in district revenue, the 12 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $313,008/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEELER SCHOOL WHEELER |
Public | 9.7 | 110 | -12.0% |
| SHAMROCK ISD SHAMROCK |
Public | 14.8 | 98 | -15.5% |
| FORT ELLIOTT SCHOOL BRISCOE |
Public | 15.9 | 46 | — |
| MCLEAN SCHOOL MCLEAN |
Public | 29.7 | 56 | -6.7% |
| MIAMI SCHOOL MIAMI |
Public | 35.5 | 55 | -14.1% |
| CANADIAN H S CANADIAN |
Public | 38.3 | 283 | +1.1% |
| WELLINGTON H S WELLINGTON |
Public | 38.6 | 168 | +10.5% |
| LEFORS SCHOOL LEFORS |
Public | 39.1 | 52 | — |