JUNCTION H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.5%/year, projecting from 2024's 177 students:
≈ 13 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $16,119 per student in district revenue, the 13 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $209,547/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MENARD H S MENARD |
Public | 29.4 | 82 | -1.2% |
| HARPER H S HARPER |
Public | 34.4 | 171 | -8.1% |
| MASON H S MASON |
Public | 36.4 | 192 | -15.8% |
| ROCKSPRINGS K-12 ROCKSPRINGS |
Public | 41.3 | 55 | -30.4% |
| HILL COUNTRY YOUTH RANCH INGRAM |
Public · charter | 41.9 | 41 | — |
| INGRAM TOM MOORE H S INGRAM |
Public | 42.4 | 439 | +19.6% |
| BIG SPRINGS CHARTER SCHOOL LEAKEY |
Public · charter | 46.0 | 47 | — |
| HILL COUNTRY H S KERRVILLE |
Public | 48.8 | 43 | — |