HILL COUNTRY YOUTH RANCH
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -4.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 74 students:
≈ 16 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $17,460 per student in district revenue, the 16 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $279,360/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRAM TOM MOORE H S INGRAM |
Public | 1.5 | 439 | +19.6% |
| HILL COUNTRY H S KERRVILLE |
Public | 7.2 | 43 | — |
| TIVY H S KERRVILLE |
Public | 9.0 | 1,363 | -5.9% |
| Our Lady Of The Hills Reg Catholic High School Kerrville |
Private | 11.5 | 89 | -15.2% |
| HARPER H S HARPER |
Public | 14.2 | 171 | -8.1% |
| CENTER POINT H S CENTER POINT |
Public | 16.5 | 163 | +0.6% |
| MEDINA SCHOOL MEDINA |
Public | 20.4 | 69 | -12.7% |
| COMFORT H S COMFORT |
Public | 21.6 | 369 | +7.9% |