JAYTON SCHOOLS
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -0.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 169 students:
≈ 3 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $56,750 per student in district revenue, the 3 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $170,250/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASPERMONT H S ASPERMONT |
Public | 22.3 | 59 | +0.0% |
| SPUR SCHOOL SPUR |
Public | 22.6 | 59 | -35.2% |
| ROTAN K-12 ROTAN |
Public | 28.4 | 69 | +9.5% |
| GUTHRIE SCHOOL GUTHRIE |
Public | 29.6 | 22 | — |
| HAMLIN COLLEGIATE H S HAMLIN |
Public · charter | 36.7 | 133 | +13.7% |
| ROBY CISD ROBY |
Public | 37.1 | 78 | -7.1% |
| PATTON SPRINGS SCHOOL AFTON |
Public | 38.1 | 30 | — |
| RULE SCHOOL RULE |
Public | 40.1 | 43 | — |