SPUR SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -4.6%/year, projecting from 2024's 192 students:
≈ 40 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $16,692 per student in district revenue, the 40 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $667,680/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATTON SPRINGS SCHOOL AFTON |
Public | 19.8 | 30 | — |
| JAYTON SCHOOLS JAYTON |
Public | 22.6 | 52 | — |
| CROSBYTON CISD PRE K-12 CROSBYTON |
Public | 25.4 | 96 | -4.0% |
| GUTHRIE SCHOOL GUTHRIE |
Public | 32.3 | 22 | — |
| RALLS H S RALLS |
Public | 32.9 | 113 | -21.5% |
| RECOVERY EDUCATION CAMPUS RALLS |
Public | 32.9 | 2 | — |
| GARZA COUNTY RJC POST |
Public | 35.4 | 22 | — |
| MOTLEY COUNTY SCHOOL MATADOR |
Public | 36.3 | 54 | +8.0% |