GUTHRIE SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -11.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 93 students:
≈ 44 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $23,126 per student in district revenue, the 44 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $1,017,544/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PADUCAH SCHOOL PADUCAH |
Public | 27.0 | 55 | +10.0% |
| JAYTON SCHOOLS JAYTON |
Public | 29.6 | 52 | — |
| PATTON SPRINGS SCHOOL AFTON |
Public | 30.1 | 30 | — |
| BENJAMIN SCHOOL BENJAMIN |
Public | 30.9 | 39 | — |
| SPUR SCHOOL SPUR |
Public | 32.3 | 59 | -35.2% |
| KNOX CITY SCHOOL KNOX CITY |
Public | 32.5 | 62 | -1.6% |
| ASPERMONT H S ASPERMONT |
Public | 34.0 | 59 | +0.0% |
| MOTLEY COUNTY SCHOOL MATADOR |
Public | 39.1 | 54 | +8.0% |