ALVIN H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.0%/year, projecting from 2024's 2,766 students:
≈ 139 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $13,391 per student in district revenue, the 139 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $1,861,349/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISE ALVIN |
Public | 0.2 | 116 | +20.8% |
| SANTA FE H S SANTA FE |
Public | 6.9 | 1,314 | -2.3% |
| ADAPT MANVEL |
Public | 7.0 | 74 | -5.1% |
| FRIENDSWOOD H S FRIENDSWOOD |
Public | 7.0 | 2,014 | +1.6% |
| MANVEL H S MANVEL |
Public | 7.8 | 2,238 | -23.9% |
| Arcadia First Baptist Christian School Santa Fe |
Private | 7.9 | 142 | -10.7% |
| Bay Area Christian School League City |
Private | 8.1 | 762 | -0.9% |
| ROBERT TURNER COLLEGE AND CAREER H S PEARLAND |
Public | 8.3 | 1,128 | -2.4% |