ADAPT
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -20.5%/year, projecting from 2024's 89 students:
≈ 61 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $13,391 per student in district revenue, the 61 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $816,851/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANVEL H S MANVEL |
Public | 0.9 | 2,238 | -23.9% |
| IOWA COLONY H S IOWA COLONY |
Public | 5.3 | 1,781 | +124.9% |
| ROBERT TURNER COLLEGE AND CAREER H S PEARLAND |
Public | 5.4 | 1,128 | -2.4% |
| SHADOW CREEK H S PEARLAND |
Public | 6.3 | 2,599 | +1.1% |
| PEARLAND H S PEARLAND |
Public | 6.7 | 3,412 | +4.8% |
| ALVIN H S ALVIN |
Public | 7.0 | 2,766 | -3.0% |
| GLENDA DAWSON H S PEARLAND |
Public | 7.1 | 2,569 | +2.1% |
| RISE ALVIN |
Public | 7.1 | 116 | +20.8% |