Sage Creek High School
Carlsbad · San Diego County · Carlsbad Unified · Public
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Most similar nearby schools
Guajome Park Academy Charter → Rancho Buena Vista High School → Vista High School → Classical Academy High School → Escondido High School → Compare all similar →📋 At a glance
- 📚 31 AP courses offered — Elite
- ✅ Gifted & talented program
- 🔢 2 calculus classes · 4 physics · 10 chemistry
- 🎓 AP rigor: 82th percentile nationally
- 📝 SAT/ACT participation: Bottom 48% by test-taker volume
- 🎓 4-yr grad rate: 97% (90th percentile nationally)
Composed from federal CRDC offerings, EDFacts ACGR, and other public data. Full breakdowns below.
🎓 Where grads go
UC admits by campus · Class of 2025
Source: University of California Office of the President, Admissions by Source School. Full campus-by-campus breakdown below.
How Sage Creek High School compares for families
Above-average college outcomes statewide.
- ▸ Statewide39.8% UC Reach — 21.7 points above the California median of 18.1%. Ahead of 83% of California high schools.
- ▸ Locally📘 Top 10% in California on ELA proficiency — plus 3 more top-ranks.
- ▸ vs Similar SchoolsBeats the peer median (39.8% UC Reach vs 16.0% median) across the 5 most similar nearby schools.
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🎓 Academic rigor
AP + advanced-course offerings
Elite — exceptional AP + advanced course breadth
82th percentile nationally
Source: federal Civil Rights Data Collection (CRDC 2020-21). CRDC reports what's offered + enrolled — it doesn't collect AP exam pass rates (College Board owns that data and doesn't release it school-level).
SAT / ACT participation
CRDC federal data · 2020-21Bottom 48% by test-taker volume
Source: federal Civil Rights Data Collection (CRDC 2020-21). Volume — not score — is what's reported here. A higher count means more students at this school are entering the college admissions pipeline. Note: 2020-21 was COVID-disrupted; some districts (especially those that stayed remote longer) report unusually low or zero takers.
🎓 4-year graduation rate · federal EDFacts
What % of students graduate on time?
90th percentile nationally
Source: federal EDFacts ACGR (Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate), 2019 vintage via Urban Institute. EDFacts publishes a range (low-high) to preserve privacy on small cohorts; we display the midpoint.
🏛️ Federal Title I context
Mixed-income school
Below Title I eligibility threshold (FRPL < 35%)
25-34% of students qualify for free/reduced lunch. Below the federal Title I threshold but a meaningful share of the population is income-eligible for free lunch.
Source: NCES Common Core of Data, free/reduced-price lunch eligibility. The actual Title I designation is a district decision and may differ from eligibility — but the federal eligibility math is what we show here. We don't claim to assert whether the district formally chose to enroll this school in Title I.
Sage Creek High School sent 708 applications to the six most selective University of California campuses and 19.8% were admitted, producing a UC Reach of 39.8% — 21.7 percentage points above the California median of 18.1%, higher than 83% of California high schools. The school produces 5.7 UCLA + UC Berkeley admits per 100 seniors.
+23.8 pp above peer median (16.0%) · Ranked #2 of 8 similar schools
18.1%
51.2%
39.8%
Higher than 83% of California high schools (978 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Sage Creek High School's UC Reach of 39.8% is in the top quartile statewide (median 18.1%; top 25% bar 30.5%) — but it's still below the top-10% bar of 51.2%.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 97.3% — a gap of 58 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Sage Creek High School's UC Reach is higher than 83% of California high schools (978 ranked).
UC funnel — which kids are getting in at what GPA
Combining the school's applicant pool GPA, admit pool GPA, actual admit rate, and statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, we can read which GPA tiers tend to get in — and which don't.
| Campus | 4.00+ GPA | 3.70–3.99 GPA | 3.30–3.69 GPA | < 3.30 GPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out | Filtered out |
| UCLA | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out | Filtered out |
| UC San Diego | Strong shot | Moderate | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Santa Barbara | Strong shot | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Irvine | Strong shot | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Davis | Strong shot | Strong shot | Real shot | Filtered out |
The numbers behind it
| Campus | Applicant GPA | Admit GPA | Lift ⓘ | Admit rate | vs peer schools @ same GPA ⓘ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.02 | 4.20 | +0.18 | 8.5% | Peers +0.22 · wider |
| UCLA | 4.04 | 4.22 | +0.19 | 9.1% | Peers +0.24 · wider |
| UC San Diego | 3.98 | 4.19 | +0.21 | 22.1% | Peers +0.27 · wider |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.98 | 4.23 | +0.26 | 29.2% | Peers +0.28 · matches |
| UC Irvine | 3.95 | 4.14 | +0.19 | 12.3% | Peers +0.25 · wider |
| UC Davis | 4.04 | 4.13 | +0.09 | 41.7% | Peers +0.20 · wider |
📊 Statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, 2025 (for reference)
| GPA band | UCB | UCLA | UCSD | UCSB | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00+ | 17.0% | 15.1% | 45.2% | 62.3% | 46.3% | 65.9% |
| 3.70–3.99 | 3.1% | 1.6% | 9.3% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 31.1% |
| 3.30–3.69 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 10.3% |
| 3.00–3.29 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| < 3.00 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
Where Sage Creek High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (19.8% actual vs. 21.7% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 106 | 9 | 6 | 8.5% | 2.6% | 66.7% | 4.02 | 4.20 |
| UCLA → Elite | 121 | 11 | 6 | 9.1% | 3.1% | 54.5% | 4.04 | 4.22 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 145 | 32 | 15 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 46.9% | 3.98 | 4.19 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 130 | 38 | 10 | 29.2% | 10.8% | 26.3% | 3.98 | 4.23 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 122 | 15 | —† | 12.3% | 4.3% | — | 3.95 | 4.14 |
| UC Davis → | 84 | 35 | 8 | 41.7% | 9.9% | 22.9% | 4.04 | 4.13 |
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 5.6 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,233 | -3 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,228 | -8 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,223 | -13 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Sage Creek High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Carlsbad · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Sage Creek High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 8): 40% vs. a peer median of 16%.
- ▸Sage Creek High School's UC Reach has declined meaningfully from a peak of 59% in 2020 to 40% in 2025 — a 19-point drop that warrants attention. Multi-year UC Reach declines of this size often signal something specific (leadership change, comp-program shift, demographic move) rather than year-to-year noise. This is the kind of trajectory an Enrollment Trend Audit unpacks.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 2% (318→312 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -11%.
- ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. San Diego County's senior population shrank 8% over the same window — Sage Creek High School only shrank 2%. So Sage Creek High School picked up about 6 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1228 by 2029 — about 8 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 8 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Creek High School | Public | 1236 | 39.8% | -2% |
| Peer-group median | 16.0% | -11% | ||
| Guajome Park Academy Charter | Public | 1326 | — | -13% |
| Rancho Buena Vista High School | Public | 1842 | 16.0% | -24% |
| Vista High School | Public | 1635 | 13.0% | -25% |
| Classical Academy High School | Public | 1395 | 13.7% | +2% |
| Escondido High School | Public | 1510 | 12.8% | -32% |
| LA Costa Canyon High School | Public | 1841 | 18.9% | +8% |
| Mission Vista High School | Public | 1673 | 27.9% | -2% |
| San Dieguito Academy | Public | 1723 | 42.2% | -9% |
| Siatech | Public | 765 | — | -81% |
| Coastal Academy Charter | Public | 2120 | — | +497% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Diego County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Sage Creek High School is shrinking (-1.9%) but San Diego County is shrinking faster (-7.8%), so Sage Creek High School is winning roughly 5.9 pp of relative market share. Combined with 93.9% stability (county median 88.5%), this reflects a school that families actively chose during a market contraction. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working.
80 of 1,311 students who enrolled at Sage Creek High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (6.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
District financial profile — Carlsbad Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 80.6%
Federal: 8.5%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Carlsbad Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
What This Means
For School Admins
The full Reach Report for Sage Creek High School
A board- and LCAP-ready intelligence brief: your enrollment retention and college outcomes, benchmarked against your closest competitors, with a 5-year forecast, concrete steps to act on, and the rigor + outcomes story you can share with your families. Built from primary public data — prepared for you, not auto-generated.
- ✓Your UC Reach (39.8%) ranked head-to-head against your closest competitor schools
- ✓Your 5-year enrollment forecast (currently -0.2%/yr) with the revenue at stake
- ✓Student-retention benchmarking vs your county median — and the LCAP evidence to back your goals