Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Del Lago Academy - Campus Of Applied Science → Guajome Park Academy Charter → Sage Creek High School → Escondido Charter High School → Pacific View Charter School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-4.1%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~734 | -31 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~675 | -90 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~621 | -144 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Diego County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment -80.7% vs. county -7.8% AND stability (24.0%) below the county median. Recruitment and retention both under pressure — likely a foundational rather than tactical problem. Chronic absenteeism is also at 46.4% (up +11.9 pts from 2016-17) — engagement and demand are both signaling decline.
1,751 of 2,304 students who enrolled at Siatech this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (76.0% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 11.9 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Vista Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 36.0%
Federal: 11.6%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Vista Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
Siatech — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Oceanside · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 81% (983→190 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -8%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-4.1%/yr), enrollment projects to ~675 by 2029 — about 90 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 90 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siatech | Public | 765 | — | -81% |
| Peer-group median | 21.8% | -8% | ||
| Del Lago Academy - Campus Of Applied Science | Public | 762 | — | +4% |
| Guajome Park Academy Charter | Public | 1326 | — | -13% |
| Sage Creek High School | Public | 1236 | 39.8% | -2% |
| Escondido Charter High School | Public | 900 | 15.7% | -5% |
| Pacific View Charter School | Public | 379 | — | -16% |
| Vista High School | Public | 1635 | 13.0% | -25% |
| Mission Vista High School | Public | 1673 | 27.9% | -2% |
| Jcs - Pine Hills | Public | 747 | — | +27% |
| High Tech High - North County | Public | 414 | 28.9% | -18% |
| Valley Center High School | Public | 1019 | 10.5% | -12% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA → Elite | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |