Enrollment & Outcomes Scorecard
Sage Creek High School
Public · Carlsbad · San Diego County · 1,236 students · Class of 2025
UC Reach · Class of 2025
40%
Higher than 83% of California high schools
+23.8 pp above peer median (16.0%)
· Ranked #2 of 8 similar schools
5-year UC Reach
2021 · 42.5%
2025 · 39.8%
-2%
Senior-class enrollment (2018–2026)
+5.9 pp
vs. San Diego County baseline (-8%)
~1228
5-yr projected enrollment (8 fewer than today)
- ▸On UC Reach, Sage Creek High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 8): 40% vs. a peer median of 16%.
- ▸Sage Creek High School's UC Reach has declined meaningfully from a peak of 59% in 2020 to 40% in 2025 — a 19-point drop that warrants attention. Multi-year UC Reach declines of this size often signal something specific (leadership change, comp-program shift, demographic move) rather than year-to-year noise. This is the kind of trajectory an Enrollment Trend Audit unpacks.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 2% (318→312 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -11%.
- ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. San Diego County's senior population shrank 8% over the same window — Sage Creek High School only shrank 2%. So Sage Creek High School picked up about 6 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1228 by 2029 — about 8 fewer students than today.
Most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | UC Reach | Enroll. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guajome Park Academy Charter | Public | — | -13% |
| Rancho Buena Vista High School | Public | 16.0% | -24% |
| Vista High School | Public | 13.0% | -25% |
| Classical Academy High School | Public | 13.7% | +2% |
| Escondido High School | Public | 12.8% | -32% |
| LA Costa Canyon High School | Public | 18.9% | +8% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Reach — by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology
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