Orcutt Junior High
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Most similar nearby schools
Lakeview Junior High → Arellanes Junior High → Manzanita Public Charter → Orcutt Academy Charter High School → Delta High School → Compare all similar →No UC admissions data on file for Orcutt Junior High.
This school doesn't appear in UCOP's source-school records (it may send few or no applicants to UC). Its enrollment trend and similar-school comparison are still below.
Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-1.5%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~492 | -8 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~477 | -23 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~463 | -37 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Santa Barbara County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
48 of 497 students who enrolled at Orcutt Junior High this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (9.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: total enrollment.
Absenteeism is up 11.0 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
District financial profile — Orcutt Union Elementary (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 35.0%
Federal: 9.5%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Orcutt Union Elementary as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
Orcutt Junior High — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸At its recent rate (-1.5%/yr), enrollment projects to ~477 by 2029 — about 23 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 23 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orcutt Junior High | Public | 500 | — | — |
| Peer-group median | 18.0% | -2% | ||
| Lakeview Junior High | Public | 445 | — | — |
| Arellanes Junior High | Public | 623 | — | — |
| Manzanita Public Charter | Public | 528 | — | — |
| Orcutt Academy Charter High School | Public | 796 | 32.5% | +22% |
| Delta High School | Public | 310 | 3.5% | -27% |
| Los Berros Visual And Performing Arts Academy | Public | 406 | — | — |
| La Honda Steam Academy | Public | 548 | — | — |
| El Camino Junior High | Public | 774 | — | — |
| Fesler (isaac) Junior High | Public | 928 | — | — |
| Kunst (tommie) Junior High | Public | 961 | — | — |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →