Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep
📄 Shareable scorecard →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+0.3%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~636 | +2 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~640 | +6 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~644 | +10 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Sacramento County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep outperformed Sacramento County on enrollment (school +9.9% vs. county +3.0%) AND maintains 98.1% stability. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working.
12 of 635 students who enrolled at Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (1.9% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is down 3.3 pp since 2016-17. Engagement improving — a positive trajectory worth understanding and reinforcing.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Natomas Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 29.9%
Federal: 12.0%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Natomas Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+12.9 pp above peer median (16.5%) · Ranked #1 of 4 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
29.4%
Higher than 72% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep's UC Reach of 29.4% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 73 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep's UC Reach is higher than 72% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Sacramento · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #1 of 4): 29% vs. a peer median of 16%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 12 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 10% (141→155 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -10%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+0.3%/yr); projects to ~640 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep | Public | 634 | 29.4% | +10% |
| Peer-group median | 16.5% | -10% | ||
| Leroy Greene Academy | Public | 753 | 16.5% | -4% |
| Highlands Community Charter | Public | 487 | — | -77% |
| Sava - Sacramento Academic And Vocational Academy - Scusd | Public | 616 | — | -16% |
| Aspire Alexander Twilight Secondary Academy | Public | 508 | — | +218% |
| California Innovative Career Academy | Public | 800 | — | +36% |
| Community Collaborative Charter | Public | 810 | — | -66% |
| Creative Connections Arts Academy | Public | 786 | — | +64% |
| Da Vinci Charter Academy | Public | 561 | 24.0% | -19% |
| Options For Youth San Juan | Public | 742 | — | -24% |
| Natomas High School | Public | 1094 | 10.0% | +30% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.87 | 17.6% | 11.6% | +6.0pp | Over |
| UCLA | 3.93 | 18.5% | 9.0% | +9.5pp | Over |
| UC San Diego | 3.83 | 20.0% | 24.0% | -4.0pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.80 | 27.8% | 26.6% | +1.2pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.81 | 38.9% | 32.0% | +6.9pp | Over |
Where Natomas Pacific Pathways Prep sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (26.6% actual vs. 21.8% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 34 | 6 | 3 | 17.6% | 4.2% | 50.0% | 3.87 | 4.18 |
| UCLA → Elite | 27 | 5 | — | 18.5% | 3.5% | — | 3.93 | 4.15 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 25 | 5 | — | 20.0% | 3.5% | — | 3.83 | 4.21 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 18 | 5 | — | 27.8% | 3.5% | — | 3.80 | 4.16 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | — |
| UC Davis → | 54 | 21 | 13 | 38.9% | 14.7% | 61.9% | 3.81 | 4.12 |