Milpitas High School
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American High School → Independence High School → Evergreen Valley High School → Irvington High School → James Logan High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-1.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,854 | -41 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,772 | -123 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,694 | -201 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Santa Clara County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Families who enroll at Milpitas High School stay (94.8% stability — elite). But enrollment is dropping 1.4× the county rate (school -8.4% vs. county -6.2%). The audit question isn't why students leave — it's why fewer families are choosing to enroll in the first place.
156 of 3,004 students who enrolled at Milpitas High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (5.2% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Milpitas Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 58.7%
Federal: 7.8%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Milpitas Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-9.4 pp vs. peer median (38.7%) · Ranked #8 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
38.7%
53.3%
29.3%
Higher than 72% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Milpitas High School's UC Reach of 29.3% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
But in Santa Clara County, where the local median is 33.1% and the top-10% bar is 79.3%, this score is mid-pack rather than exceptional — typical of its market rather than a standout.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 73 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Milpitas High School's UC Reach is higher than 72% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Milpitas High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Milpitas · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Milpitas High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #8 of 11): 29% vs. a peer median of 39%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has held roughly steady since 2018.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Milpitas High School is admitting at roughly -6 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.874) alone would predict (15% actual vs. 21% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 8% (814→746 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -12%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-1.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2772 by 2029 — about 123 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 123 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milpitas High School | Public | 2895 | 29.3% | -8% |
| Peer-group median | 38.7% | -12% | ||
| American High School | Public | 2694 | 68.3% | +24% |
| Independence High School | Public | 2229 | 17.0% | -24% |
| Evergreen Valley High School | Public | 2734 | 43.5% | -8% |
| Irvington High School | Public | 2141 | 60.6% | -15% |
| James Logan High School | Public | 3054 | 22.7% | -22% |
| Piedmont Hills High School | Public | 1866 | 31.0% | -15% |
| Washington High School | Public | 1964 | 33.9% | -2% |
| Homestead High School | Public | 2190 | 54.6% | -1% |
| Mission San Jose High School | Public | 1740 | 70.1% | -16% |
| Fremont High | Public | 2015 | 24.1% | +4% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.89 | 8.8% | 11.7% | -2.8pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.90 | 8.2% | 9.0% | -0.8pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.87 | 14.7% | 23.0% | -8.4pp | Under |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.87 | 21.9% | 27.6% | -5.6pp | Under |
| UC Irvine | 3.88 | 13.0% | 22.1% | -9.1pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.85 | 23.5% | 32.1% | -8.6pp | Under |
Where Milpitas High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 6.1 points below what their GPAs predict (15.2% actual vs. 21.2% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 215 | 19 | 14 | 8.8% | 2.7% | 73.7% | 3.89 | 4.18 |
| UCLA → Elite | 208 | 17 | 9 | 8.2% | 2.4% | 52.9% | 3.90 | 4.25 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 225 | 33 | 14 | 14.7% | 4.8% | 42.4% | 3.87 | 4.16 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 196 | 43 | 8 | 21.9% | 6.2% | 18.6% | 3.87 | 4.22 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 239 | 31 | 10 | 13.0% | 4.5% | 32.3% | 3.88 | 4.18 |
| UC Davis → | 255 | 60 | 14 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 23.3% | 3.85 | 4.13 |