John J. Cairns Continuation
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Most similar nearby schools
Kaweah High → Deep Creek Academy → Tulare Technical Preparatory High → Bravo Lake High → Lovell High → Compare all similar →No UC admissions data on file for John J. Cairns Continuation.
This school doesn't appear in UCOP's source-school records (it may send few or no applicants to UC). Its enrollment trend and similar-school comparison are still below.
Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-6.6%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~44 | -3 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~38 | -9 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~33 | -14 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Tulare County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment -56.5% vs. county +2.2% AND stability (36.6%) below the county median. Recruitment and retention both under pressure — likely a foundational rather than tactical problem. Chronic absenteeism is also at 63.2% (up +2.3 pts from 2016-17) — engagement and demand are both signaling decline.
71 of 112 students who enrolled at John J. Cairns Continuation this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (63.4% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Roughly one in three students is chronically absent. A floor this high signals systemic engagement problems beyond what any single intervention can fix.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Lindsay Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 8.5%
Federal: 33.3%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Lindsay Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
John J. Cairns Continuation — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 56% (46→20 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -28%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-6.6%/yr), enrollment projects to ~38 by 2029 — about 9 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 9 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John J. Cairns Continuation | Public | 47 | — | -56% |
| Peer-group median | — | -28% | ||
| Kaweah High | Public | 34 | — | -15% |
| Deep Creek Academy | Public | 26 | — | -58% |
| Tulare Technical Preparatory High | Public | 32 | — | -64% |
| Bravo Lake High | Public | 28 | — | -30% |
| Lovell High | Public | 61 | — | -27% |
| Citrus High | Public | 145 | — | -7% |
| Earl F. Johnson High (continuation) | Public | 56 | — | -38% |
| Loma Vista Charter | Public | 8 | — | -83% |
| Oasis Continuation High | Public | 58 | — | +62% |
| Valley High | Public | 67 | — | -22% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →