Atwater High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Buhach Colony High School → Merced High School → El Capitan High → Golden Valley High → Livingston High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+1.5%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,089 | +31 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,152 | +94 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,218 | +160 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Merced County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Atwater High School is recruiting families faster than Merced County is shrinking (school +26.8% vs. county +7.6%), but 278 students didn't make it to year-end. The recruitment engine works; the mid-year exits are worth understanding. Chronic absenteeism is rising (20.7%, +6.0 pts since 2016-17) — a watch signal worth monitoring as a leading indicator.
278 of 2,167 students who enrolled at Atwater High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (12.8% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 6.0 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Merced Union High (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 20.5%
Federal: 14.9%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Merced Union High as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-2.7 pp vs. peer median (12.5%) · Ranked #8 of 10 similar schools
18.5%
12.5%
53.3%
9.8%
Higher than 18% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Atwater High School's UC Reach of 9.8% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Atwater High School's UC Reach is higher than 18% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Atwater High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Atwater · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Atwater High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #8 of 10): 10% vs. a peer median of 12%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 2 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 27% (392→497 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +9%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+1.5%/yr); projects to ~2152 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atwater High School | Public | 2058 | 9.8% | +27% |
| Peer-group median | 12.5% | +9% | ||
| Buhach Colony High School | Public | 1670 | 5.5% | -9% |
| Merced High School | Public | 1975 | 12.5% | +18% |
| El Capitan High | Public | 1852 | 20.0% | +10% |
| Golden Valley High | Public | 1931 | 15.2% | +14% |
| Livingston High School | Public | 1154 | 9.8% | +1% |
| Turlock High School | Public | 2497 | 10.2% | +8% |
| John H Pitman High School | Public | 1968 | 15.5% | +2% |
| Modesto High School | Public | 2205 | 13.1% | +4% |
| Central Valley High School | Public | 2335 | 11.1% | +38% |
| Peter Johansen High | Public | 1938 | — | +20% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.77 | 14.7% | 12.1% | +2.6pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.66 | 20.6% | 29.5% | -8.9pp | Under |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.72 | 45.2% | 26.6% | +18.6pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 3.84 | 34.8% | 21.2% | +13.6pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 3.67 | 24.5% | 32.2% | -7.7pp | Under |
Where Atwater High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (26.9% actual vs. 25.3% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 34 | 5 | — | 14.7% | 1.0% | — | 3.77 | 4.15 |
| UCLA → Elite | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 34 | 7 | — | 20.6% | 1.5% | — | 3.66 | 4.15 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 31 | 14 | 3 | 45.2% | 2.9% | 21.4% | 3.72 | 4.13 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 23 | 8 | — | 34.8% | 1.7% | — | 3.84 | 4.14 |
| UC Davis → | 53 | 13 | — | 24.5% | 2.7% | — | 3.67 | 4.11 |