John H Pitman High School
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Turlock High School → Peter Johansen High → Central Valley High School → Modesto High School → Ceres High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.7%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,954 | -14 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,927 | -41 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,901 | -67 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Stanislaus County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
John H Pitman High School's enrollment is tracking Stanislaus County's baseline (+2.1% vs. +2.3%), and 89.8% stability is elite. The demographic tide is the headwind; you're holding your share. Chronic absenteeism is rising (21.7%, +10.9 pts since 2016-17) — a watch signal worth monitoring as a leading indicator.
213 of 2,087 students who enrolled at John H Pitman High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (10.2% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 10.9 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Turlock Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 27.0%
Federal: 10.1%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Turlock Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+3.8 pp above peer median (11.7%) · Ranked #2 of 10 similar schools
18.5%
11.7%
53.3%
15.5%
Higher than 43% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
John H Pitman High School's UC Reach of 15.5% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, John H Pitman High School's UC Reach is higher than 43% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
John H Pitman High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Turlock · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, John H Pitman High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 10): 16% vs. a peer median of 12%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 10 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 2% (467→477 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +7%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.7%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1927 by 2029 — about 41 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 41 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John H Pitman High School | Public | 1968 | 15.5% | +2% |
| Peer-group median | 11.7% | +7% | ||
| Turlock High School | Public | 2497 | 10.2% | +8% |
| Peter Johansen High | Public | 1938 | — | +20% |
| Central Valley High School | Public | 2335 | 11.1% | +38% |
| Modesto High School | Public | 2205 | 13.1% | +4% |
| Ceres High School | Public | 1580 | 14.0% | -5% |
| Thomas Downey High School | Public | 2180 | 9.1% | +28% |
| Grace M Davis High School | Public | 1966 | 11.7% | +7% |
| James C Enochs High School | Public | 2332 | 25.9% | -2% |
| Fred C Beyer High School | Public | 1650 | 11.6% | +2% |
| Patterson High School | Public | 1830 | 12.8% | +11% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.93 | 12.8% | 11.9% | +0.9pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.97 | 11.1% | 9.1% | +2.0pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.89 | 21.6% | 22.5% | -0.9pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.92 | 37.8% | 29.2% | +8.7pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 3.97 | 47.2% | 25.4% | +21.8pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 3.84 | 34.4% | 32.1% | +2.3pp | On target |
Where John H Pitman High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (27.3% actual vs. 22.4% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 47 | 6 | 3 | 12.8% | 1.3% | 50.0% | 3.93 | 4.17 |
| UCLA → Elite | 36 | 4 | 3 | 11.1% | 0.8% | 75.0% | 3.97 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 51 | 11 | 3 | 21.6% | 2.3% | 27.3% | 3.89 | 4.29 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 37 | 14 | 3 | 37.8% | 2.9% | 21.4% | 3.92 | 4.24 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 36 | 17 | 5 | 47.2% | 3.6% | 29.4% | 3.97 | 4.17 |
| UC Davis → | 64 | 22 | 6 | 34.4% | 4.6% | 27.3% | 3.84 | 4.22 |