WAELDER SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -0.3%/year, projecting from 2024's 302 students:
≈ 5 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $16,054 per student in district revenue, the 5 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $80,270/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLATONIA SECONDARY FLATONIA |
Public | 11.9 | 200 | +0.5% |
| MOULTON H S MOULTON |
Public | 12.2 | 91 | +5.8% |
| GONZALES H S GONZALES |
Public | 14.6 | 751 | -9.0% |
| SHINER H S SHINER |
Public | 18.5 | 200 | -2.0% |
| Shiner Catholic School Shiner |
Private | 20.5 | 246 | -6.1% |
| LULING H S LULING |
Public | 21.2 | 402 | -6.7% |
| SMITHVILLE H S SMITHVILLE |
Public | 22.4 | 543 | -4.7% |
| SCHULENBURG SECONDARY SCHULENBURG |
Public | 23.8 | 267 | +10.8% |