FLATONIA SECONDARY
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.2%/year, projecting from 2024's 327 students:
≈ 19 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $16,585 per student in district revenue, the 19 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $315,115/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOULTON H S MOULTON |
Public | 7.7 | 91 | +5.8% |
| SCHULENBURG SECONDARY SCHULENBURG |
Public | 11.9 | 267 | +10.8% |
| WAELDER SCHOOL WAELDER |
Public | 11.9 | 74 | +0.0% |
| SHINER H S SHINER |
Public | 17.0 | 200 | -2.0% |
| Shiner Catholic School Shiner |
Private | 18.3 | 246 | -6.1% |
| WEIMAR H S WEIMAR |
Public | 19.0 | 214 | +14.4% |
| HALLETTSVILLE H S HALLETTSVILLE |
Public | 19.2 | 406 | +4.4% |
| Sacred Heart Catholic School Hallettsville |
Private | 19.3 | 248 | +4.2% |