NAZARETH SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -0.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 243 students:
≈ 11 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,560 per student in district revenue, the 11 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $171,160/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HART ISD HART |
Public | 11.1 | 61 | +10.9% |
| DIMMITT H S DIMMITT |
Public | 13.1 | 324 | -1.8% |
| HAPPY H S HAPPY |
Public | 19.5 | 81 | -14.7% |
| TULIA H S TULIA |
Public | 19.5 | 267 | -10.1% |
| KRESS H S KRESS |
Public | 23.8 | 90 | +12.5% |
| SPRINGLAKE-EARTH ISD EARTH |
Public | 24.5 | 83 | -9.8% |
| OLTON H S OLTON |
Public | 25.1 | 197 | +18.0% |
| HEREFORD H S HEREFORD |
Public | 25.7 | 1,182 | +2.4% |