MARSHALL EARLY GRADUATION SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -16.7%/year, projecting from 2024's 71 students:
≈ 43 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $12,531 per student in district revenue, the 43 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $538,833/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARSHALL H S MARSHALL |
Public | 2.2 | 1,467 | +7.6% |
| Marshall Christian Academy Marshall |
Private | 2.9 | 104 | +44.4% |
| TEXAS EARLY COLLEGE H S MARSHALL |
Public · charter | 3.4 | 82 | -18.8% |
| HALLSVILLE DAEP HALLSVILLE |
Public | 12.1 | — | — |
| HALLSVILLE H S HALLSVILLE |
Public | 12.7 | 1,451 | +2.0% |
| HARLETON H S HARLETON |
Public | 14.0 | 217 | -3.1% |
| JEFFERSON H S JEFFERSON |
Public | 15.4 | 383 | +2.7% |
| Jefferson Christian Academy Jefferson |
Private | 17.5 | 14 | — |