KARNES CITY H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -5.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 281 students:
≈ 68 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $23,266 per student in district revenue, the 68 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $1,582,088/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENEDY H S KENEDY |
Public | 4.6 | 219 | -3.1% |
| CONNALLY KENEDY |
Public · charter | 8.5 | 83 | — |
| FALLS CITY H S FALLS CITY |
Public | 10.5 | 119 | -1.7% |
| RUNGE H S RUNGE |
Public | 10.9 | 41 | — |
| NORDHEIM SCHOOL NORDHEIM |
Public | 17.0 | 36 | — |
| POTH H S POTH |
Public | 17.3 | 275 | +7.0% |
| PETTUS SECONDARY PETTUS |
Public | 19.0 | 117 | +13.6% |
| FLORESVILLE H S FLORESVILLE |
Public | 23.8 | 1,254 | +0.0% |