PADUCAH SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.0%/year, projecting from 2024's 156 students:
≈ 8 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $17,557 per student in district revenue, the 8 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $140,456/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GUTHRIE SCHOOL GUTHRIE |
Public | 27.0 | 22 | — |
| MOTLEY COUNTY SCHOOL MATADOR |
Public | 29.3 | 54 | +8.0% |
| CHILDRESS H S CHILDRESS |
Public | 29.6 | 317 | +7.8% |
| PATTON SPRINGS SCHOOL AFTON |
Public | 33.7 | 30 | — |
| CROWELL SCHOOL CROWELL |
Public | 34.0 | 49 | — |
| QUANAH H S QUANAH |
Public | 37.7 | 143 | -13.3% |
| BENJAMIN SCHOOL BENJAMIN |
Public | 42.3 | 39 | — |
| VALLEY SCHOOL TURKEY |
Public | 45.7 | 56 | -18.8% |