DOUGLASS SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.5%/year, projecting from 2024's 424 students:
≈ 50 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $12,315 per student in district revenue, the 50 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $615,750/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUSHING SCHOOL CUSHING |
Public | 10.9 | 165 | +1.2% |
| ALTO H S ALTO |
Public | 11.2 | 146 | -10.4% |
| CENTRAL HEIGHTS H S NACOGDOCHES |
Public | 12.1 | 333 | -1.2% |
| WELLS SCHOOL WELLS |
Public | 12.7 | 82 | +5.1% |
| NACOGDOCHES CO ALTER ED COOP NACOGDOCHES |
Public | 13.1 | — | — |
| MARGIE CHUMBLEY ACADEMY FOR SUCCESS NACOGDOCHES |
Public | 13.1 | 67 | +17.5% |
| NACOGDOCHES H S NACOGDOCHES |
Public | 15.4 | 1,755 | +0.1% |
| Regents Academy Nacogdoches |
Private | 16.5 | 151 | -3.8% |