BLUFF DALE
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.3%/year, projecting from 2024's 219 students:
≈ 14 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,415 per student in district revenue, the 14 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $215,810/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOLAR H S TOLAR |
Public | 5.9 | 272 | +7.5% |
| LIPAN H S LIPAN |
Public | 12.0 | 145 | +5.8% |
| THREE WAY JH/HS STEPHENVILLE |
Public | 13.4 | 55 | -17.9% |
| GRANBURY H S GRANBURY |
Public | 14.0 | 2,215 | +6.1% |
| LAKE GRANBURY ACADEMY GRANBURY |
Public · charter | 14.6 | 37 | — |
| STARS ACCELERATED H S GRANBURY |
Public | 15.0 | 44 | — |
| STEPHENVILLE H S STEPHENVILLE |
Public | 15.4 | 1,079 | -0.2% |
| HUCKABAY SCHOOL STEPHENVILLE |
Public | 16.2 | 85 | +13.3% |