PANTHER CREEK SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -0.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 163 students:
≈ 3 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $18,987 per student in district revenue, the 3 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $56,961/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLEMAN H S COLEMAN |
Public | 14.0 | 229 | +10.1% |
| SANTA ANNA SECONDARY SANTA ANNA |
Public | 15.1 | 70 | -27.8% |
| LOHN SCHOOL LOHN |
Public | 23.3 | 45 | — |
| PAINT ROCK SCHOOL PAINT ROCK |
Public | 23.8 | 68 | +30.8% |
| OLFEN SCHOOL ROWENA |
Public | 24.1 | 46 | — |
| BANGS H S BANGS |
Public | 25.5 | 226 | -8.5% |
| BALLINGER H S BALLINGER |
Public | 26.0 | 231 | -9.8% |
| BROOKESMITH SCHOOL BROOKESMITH |
Public | 26.3 | 47 | — |