GARZA COUNTY RJC
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -17.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 23 students:
≈ 14 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $20,051 per student in district revenue, the 14 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $280,714/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POST H S POST |
Public | 1.2 | 233 | +15.3% |
| SOUTHLAND SCHOOL SOUTHLAND |
Public | 15.4 | 22 | — |
| WILSON SCHOOL WILSON |
Public | 22.3 | 36 | — |
| SLATON H S SLATON |
Public | 23.3 | 359 | -4.8% |
| TAHOKA H S TAHOKA |
Public | 25.3 | 183 | +8.3% |
| BORDEN COUNTY SCHOOL GAIL |
Public | 29.6 | 75 | +7.1% |
| O'DONNELL SCHOOL O'DONNELL |
Public | 30.9 | 91 | -1.1% |
| ROOSEVELT H S LUBBOCK |
Public | 31.7 | 332 | -0.9% |