Waterford High School
📄 Shareable scorecard →Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Connecting Waters Charter Sch → Stanislaus Alternative Charter → Hughson High School → Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy → Connecting Waters Charter School - Central Valley → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~577 | -1 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~575 | -3 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~574 | -4 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Stanislaus County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Waterford High School is recruiting families faster than Stanislaus County is shrinking (school +35.6% vs. county +2.3%), but 64 students didn't make it to year-end. The recruitment engine works; the mid-year exits are worth understanding.
64 of 603 students who enrolled at Waterford High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (10.6% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 4.0 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Waterford Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 21.2%
Federal: 25.9%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Waterford Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-8.0 pp vs. peer median (10.4%) · Ranked #7 of 7 similar schools
18.5%
10.4%
53.3%
2.4%
Higher than 0% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Waterford High School's UC Reach of 2.4% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Waterford High School's UC Reach is higher than 0% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Waterford High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Waterford · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Waterford High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #7 of 7): 2% vs. a peer median of 10%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 2 points since 2019 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 36% (118→160 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +14%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~575 by 2029 — about 3 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 3 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford High School | Public | 578 | 2.4% | +36% |
| Peer-group median | 10.4% | +14% | ||
| Connecting Waters Charter Sch | Public | 697 | 7.0% | -66% |
| Stanislaus Alternative Charter | Public | 565 | — | -69% |
| Hughson High School | Public | 902 | 12.2% | +55% |
| Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy | Public | 654 | — | +191% |
| Connecting Waters Charter School - Central Valley | Public | 747 | — | +1633% |
| Riverbank High School | Public | 826 | 11.8% | +23% |
| Delhi High School | Public | 716 | 25.3% | -15% |
| Keyes To Learning Charter | Public | 343 | — | -15% |
| Hilmar High School | Public | 700 | 9.0% | +21% |
| Denair High School | Public | 313 | 3.4% | +8% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.95 | 80.0% | 30.4% | +49.6pp | Over |
UC Outcomes Trend — 2019–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 5 | 4 | — | 80.0% | 2.4% | — | 3.95 | — |
| UC Davis → | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | — |