Connecting Waters Charter Sch
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Most similar nearby schools
Waterford High School → Hughson High School → Connecting Waters Charter School - Central Valley → Riverbank High School → Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-13.3%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~605 | -92 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~455 | -242 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~342 | -355 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Stanislaus County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment -65.7% vs. county +2.3% AND stability (74.9%) below the county median. Recruitment and retention both under pressure — likely a foundational rather than tactical problem.
71 of 283 students who enrolled at Connecting Waters Charter Sch this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (25.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
-3.6 pp vs. peer median (10.6%) · Ranked #6 of 7 similar schools
18.5%
10.6%
53.3%
7.0%
Higher than 8% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Connecting Waters Charter Sch's UC Reach of 7.0% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Connecting Waters Charter Sch's UC Reach is higher than 8% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Connecting Waters Charter Sch — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Waterford · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Connecting Waters Charter Sch sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 7): 7% vs. a peer median of 11%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 2 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 66% (166→57 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +22%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-13.3%/yr), enrollment projects to ~455 by 2029 — about 242 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 242 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecting Waters Charter Sch | Public | 697 | 7.0% | -66% |
| Peer-group median | 10.6% | +22% | ||
| Waterford High School | Public | 578 | 2.4% | +36% |
| Hughson High School | Public | 902 | 12.2% | +55% |
| Connecting Waters Charter School - Central Valley | Public | 747 | — | +1633% |
| Riverbank High School | Public | 826 | 11.8% | +23% |
| Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy | Public | 654 | — | +191% |
| Delhi High School | Public | 716 | 25.3% | -15% |
| Hilmar High School | Public | 700 | 9.0% | +21% |
| Stanislaus Alternative Charter | Public | 565 | — | -69% |
| Escalon High School | Public | 776 | 9.4% | -5% |
| Keyes To Learning Charter | Public | 343 | — | -15% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | 4.11 | 80.0% | 34.0% | +46.0pp | Over |
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | — |
| UC Davis → | 5 | 4 | — | 80.0% | 7.0% | — | 4.11 | — |