Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Tierra Del Sol Continuation High → Vista Continuation High → Vista West Continuation High → Kern Workforce 2000 Academy → Strathmore High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-4.9%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~285 | -15 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~258 | -42 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~233 | -67 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Kern County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Valley Oaks Charter School outperformed Kern County on enrollment (school +1.3% vs. county -2.7%) AND maintains 87.3% stability. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working.
42 of 330 students who enrolled at Valley Oaks Charter School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (12.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 11.7 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
Valley Oaks Charter School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Bakersfield · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 1% (78→79 from 2024 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +5%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-4.9%/yr), enrollment projects to ~258 by 2029 — about 42 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 42 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valley Oaks Charter School | Public | 300 | — | +1% |
| Peer-group median | 7.0% | +5% | ||
| Tierra Del Sol Continuation High | Public | 291 | — | -3% |
| Vista Continuation High | Public | 211 | — | -20% |
| Vista West Continuation High | Public | 428 | — | +47% |
| Kern Workforce 2000 Academy | Public | 483 | — | +23% |
| Strathmore High School | Public | 292 | 7.0% | +10% |
| Porterville Military Academy | Public | 285 | — | +52% |
| Nueva Continuation High | Public | 80 | — | -55% |
| Frazier Mountain High School | Public | 260 | — | -24% |
| Butterfield Charter | Public | 365 | — | -0% |
| Mojave Jr./Sr. High | Public | 368 | — | +27% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UCLA → Elite | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |