Tomales High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Northwest Prep Charter School → El Camino High → Ridgway High (continuation) → San Antonio High (continuation) → Tamiscal High (alternative) → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~134 | +0 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~133 | -1 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~132 | -2 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Marin County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
On the surface Tomales High School looks fine — enrollment is +27.6% vs. Marin County +7.3%, and 95.3% of students stay through year-end. But <strong>chronic absenteeism is at 27.9%, up -1.4 pts since 2016-17 (county median 16.9%). Disengagement leads departure — families pull back from the day-to-day before they formally leave. The demand signal usually follows within 2–3 years.
6 of 129 students who enrolled at Tomales High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (4.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is in the typical CA HS range. Worth monitoring alongside the demand and retention signals above.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Shoreline Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 73.1%
Federal: 14.1%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Shoreline Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
Tomales High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Tomales · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Tomales High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 2): 12% vs. a peer median of 32%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 2 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 28% (29→37 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +2%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~133 by 2029 — about 1 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 1 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomales High School | Public | 134 | 12.2% | +28% |
| Peer-group median | 31.6% | +2% | ||
| Northwest Prep Charter School | Public | 83 | — | +7% |
| El Camino High | Public | 65 | — | +26% |
| Ridgway High (continuation) | Public | 252 | — | -4% |
| San Antonio High (continuation) | Public | 60 | — | -29% |
| Tamiscal High (alternative) | Public | 116 | — | +50% |
| Valley Oak High | Public | 134 | — | -29% |
| Technology High School | Public | 344 | 31.6% | +10% |
| Laguna High | Public | 61 | — | -2% |
| Pathways Charter | Public | 379 | — | -32% |
| Marin Oaks High | Public | 63 | — | +27% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2024
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |