Serrano High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Adelanto High School → Silverado High School → Oak Hills High School → Sultana High School → Hesperia High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,096 | -8 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,081 | -23 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,066 | -38 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Bernardino County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment is shrinking faster than San Bernardino County (school -5.7% vs. county +0.0%) with stability (80.5%) near the county median. Two problems compounding — the recruitment side is the higher-leverage starting point.
460 of 2,354 students who enrolled at Serrano High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (19.5% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 12.8 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Snowline Joint Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 14.6%
Federal: 10.7%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Snowline Joint Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-1.6 pp vs. peer median (9.3%) · Ranked #7 of 8 similar schools
18.5%
9.3%
53.3%
7.7%
Higher than 11% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Serrano High School's UC Reach of 7.7% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Serrano High School's UC Reach is higher than 11% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Serrano High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Phelan · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Serrano High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #7 of 8): 8% vs. a peer median of 9%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 2 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 6% (453→427 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +15%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2081 by 2029 — about 23 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 23 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano High School | Public | 2104 | 7.7% | -6% |
| Peer-group median | 9.3% | +15% | ||
| Adelanto High School | Public | 2291 | 9.3% | +25% |
| Silverado High School | Public | 2209 | 7.3% | -7% |
| Oak Hills High School | Public | 2447 | 12.7% | +16% |
| Sultana High School | Public | 2087 | 9.2% | +13% |
| Hesperia High School | Public | 2494 | 13.4% | +32% |
| Taylion High Desert Academy/Adelanto | Public | 1857 | — | -79% |
| Victor Valley High School | Public | 2258 | 8.6% | +10% |
| Excelsior Charter | Public | 2260 | — | +8% |
| Riverside Preparatory | Public | 2404 | 13.1% | +49% |
| Alta Vista Innovation High | Public | 2640 | — | +130% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.95 | 18.8% | 12.0% | +6.7pp | Over |
| UCLA | 4.06 | 8.8% | 9.5% | -0.7pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.85 | 19.2% | 23.4% | -4.2pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.88 | 46.2% | 27.8% | +18.3pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 3.92 | 19.5% | 23.4% | -3.9pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.84 | 50.0% | 32.1% | +17.9pp | Over |
Where Serrano High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (23.5% actual vs. 20.5% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 16 | 3 | — | 18.8% | 0.6% | — | 3.95 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 34 | 3 | — | 8.8% | 0.6% | — | 4.06 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 26 | 5 | — | 19.2% | 1.1% | — | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 26 | 12 | 4 | 46.2% | 2.6% | 33.3% | 3.88 | 4.27 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 41 | 8 | — | 19.5% | 1.7% | — | 3.92 | 4.18 |
| UC Davis → | 10 | 5 | — | 50.0% | 1.1% | — | 3.84 | 4.27 |