San Marin High School
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Novato High School → Petaluma High School → Terra Linda High School → San Rafael High School → Archie Williams High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+1.5%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,255 | +18 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,293 | +56 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,331 | +94 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Marin County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment is shrinking faster than Marin County (school +5.2% vs. county +7.3%) with stability (93.6%) near the county median. Two problems compounding — the recruitment side is the higher-leverage starting point.
83 of 1,290 students who enrolled at San Marin High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (6.4% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 7.2 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Novato Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 49.2%
Federal: 9.3%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Novato Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
On the peer median (22.9%) · Ranked #6 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
22.9%
53.3%
23.3%
Higher than 62% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
San Marin High School's UC Reach of 23.3% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 79 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, San Marin High School's UC Reach is higher than 62% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
San Marin High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Novato · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, San Marin High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 11): 23% vs. a peer median of 23%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 5 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 5% (269→283 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +0%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+1.5%/yr); projects to ~1293 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marin High School | Public | 1237 | 23.3% | +5% |
| Peer-group median | 22.9% | +0% | ||
| Novato High School | Public | 1172 | 25.1% | +2% |
| Petaluma High School | Public | 1173 | 21.6% | -14% |
| Terra Linda High School | Public | 1205 | 32.4% | -1% |
| San Rafael High School | Public | 1308 | 11.4% | +36% |
| Archie Williams High School | Public | 1057 | 29.9% | +27% |
| Casa Grande High School | Public | 1600 | 16.5% | +14% |
| Sonoma Valley High School | Public | 1055 | 24.2% | -22% |
| Tamalpais High School | Public | 1346 | 55.1% | -8% |
| Richmond High School | Public | 1233 | 14.2% | -12% |
| Pinole Valley High School | Public | 1224 | 13.2% | +10% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.94 | 6.3% | 11.9% | -5.6pp | Under |
| UCLA | 4.00 | 9.4% | 9.2% | +0.1pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.89 | 18.0% | 22.6% | -4.6pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.90 | 26.2% | 28.7% | -2.4pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.92 | 11.3% | 23.5% | -12.2pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.83 | 26.8% | 32.1% | -5.2pp | Under |
Where San Marin High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (17.2% actual vs. 22.1% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 63 | 4 | — | 6.3% | 1.3% | — | 3.94 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 64 | 6 | 4 | 9.4% | 2.0% | 66.7% | 4.00 | 4.26 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 61 | 11 | — | 18.0% | 3.6% | — | 3.89 | 4.26 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 80 | 21 | — | 26.2% | 6.9% | — | 3.90 | 4.26 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 62 | 7 | — | 11.3% | 2.3% | — | 3.92 | 4.13 |
| UC Davis → | 82 | 22 | 7 | 26.8% | 7.2% | 31.8% | 3.83 | 4.15 |