San Rafael High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Terra Linda High School → Tamalpais High School → Archie Williams High School → Redwood High School → Richmond High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,305 | -3 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,299 | -9 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,293 | -15 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Marin County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
San Rafael High School is recruiting families faster than Marin County is shrinking (school +36.1% vs. county +7.3%), but 89 students didn't make it to year-end. The recruitment engine works; the mid-year exits are worth understanding.
89 of 1,375 students who enrolled at San Rafael High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (6.5% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — San Rafael City High (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 83.9%
Federal: 5.4%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the San Rafael City High as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-19.7 pp vs. peer median (31.1%) · Ranked #11 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
31.1%
53.3%
11.4%
Higher than 25% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
San Rafael High School's UC Reach of 11.4% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Against similar schools, San Rafael High School trails the peer-group median (31.1%) — even though it looks strong vs. the state average.
Overall, San Rafael High School's UC Reach is higher than 25% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
San Rafael High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · San Rafael · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, San Rafael High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #11 of 11): 11% vs. a peer median of 31%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 3 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 36% (280→381 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +3%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1299 by 2029 — about 9 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 9 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Rafael High School | Public | 1308 | 11.4% | +36% |
| Peer-group median | 31.1% | +3% | ||
| Terra Linda High School | Public | 1205 | 32.4% | -1% |
| Tamalpais High School | Public | 1346 | 55.1% | -8% |
| Archie Williams High School | Public | 1057 | 29.9% | +27% |
| Redwood High School | Public | 1745 | 54.5% | +8% |
| Richmond High School | Public | 1233 | 14.2% | -12% |
| Novato High School | Public | 1172 | 25.1% | +2% |
| San Marin High School | Public | 1237 | 23.3% | +5% |
| El Cerrito High School | Public | 1361 | 39.3% | -6% |
| Pinole Valley High School | Public | 1224 | 13.2% | +10% |
| Making Waves Academy | Public | 1006 | 38.2% | +63% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.89 | 17.6% | 11.7% | +6.0pp | Over |
| UCLA | 3.96 | 6.2% | 9.1% | -2.8pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.95 | 18.6% | 21.0% | -2.4pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.88 | 18.4% | 28.0% | -9.6pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.85 | 26.5% | 32.1% | -5.6pp | Under |
Where San Rafael High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (17.5% actual vs. 20.3% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 51 | 9 | 8 | 17.6% | 2.5% | 88.9% | 3.89 | 4.07 |
| UCLA → Elite | 48 | 3 | — | 6.2% | 0.8% | — | 3.96 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 43 | 8 | — | 18.6% | 2.2% | — | 3.95 | 4.28 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 49 | 9 | 3 | 18.4% | 2.5% | 33.3% | 3.88 | 4.23 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | — |
| UC Davis → | 49 | 13 | 5 | 26.5% | 3.5% | 38.5% | 3.85 | 4.14 |