Casa Grande High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Petaluma High School → Rancho Cotate High School → San Marin High School → Novato High School → Maria Carrillo High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.8%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,587 | -13 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,562 | -38 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,537 | -63 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Sonoma County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Casa Grande High School is recruiting families faster than Sonoma County is shrinking (school +13.6% vs. county -0.1%), but 136 students didn't make it to year-end. The recruitment engine works; the mid-year exits are worth understanding.
136 of 1,703 students who enrolled at Casa Grande High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (8.0% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 9.5 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
-2.1 pp vs. peer median (18.6%) · Ranked #6 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
16.5%
Higher than 46% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Casa Grande High School's UC Reach of 16.5% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Casa Grande High School's UC Reach is higher than 46% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Casa Grande High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Petaluma · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Casa Grande High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 11): 16% vs. a peer median of 19%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 5 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 14% (361→410 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +2%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.8%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1562 by 2029 — about 38 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 38 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande High School | Public | 1600 | 16.5% | +14% |
| Peer-group median | 18.6% | +2% | ||
| Petaluma High School | Public | 1173 | 21.6% | -14% |
| Rancho Cotate High School | Public | 1679 | 7.8% | +13% |
| San Marin High School | Public | 1237 | 23.3% | +5% |
| Novato High School | Public | 1172 | 25.1% | +2% |
| Maria Carrillo High School | Public | 1582 | 28.5% | +6% |
| Napa High School | Public | 1592 | 9.2% | +2% |
| Sonoma Valley High School | Public | 1055 | 24.2% | -22% |
| Vintage High School | Public | 1559 | 15.5% | -12% |
| Santa Rosa High School | Public | 1443 | 8.1% | -22% |
| Piner High School | Public | 1538 | 7.8% | +14% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.99 | 8.9% | 12.5% | -3.7pp | On target |
| UCLA | 4.00 | 9.1% | 9.3% | -0.2pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 4.06 | 35.1% | 18.9% | +16.3pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 4.00 | 31.2% | 32.6% | -1.3pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 4.00 | 15.0% | 26.3% | -11.3pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.93 | 49.0% | 32.4% | +16.5pp | Over |
Where Casa Grande High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (25.1% actual vs. 22.3% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 45 | 4 | — | 8.9% | 1.0% | — | 3.99 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 44 | 4 | 4 | 9.1% | 1.0% | 100.0% | 4.00 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 37 | 13 | 6 | 35.1% | 3.2% | 46.2% | 4.06 | 4.18 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 48 | 15 | 5 | 31.2% | 3.7% | 33.3% | 4.00 | 4.23 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 40 | 6 | — | 15.0% | 1.5% | — | 4.00 | 4.11 |
| UC Davis → | 49 | 24 | 3 | 49.0% | 6.0% | 12.5% | 3.93 | 4.17 |