Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Providence High School → Villanova Preparatory School → Saint Bonaventure High School → LA Reina High School → Grace Brethren High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+2.0%/yr, Total enrollment)
At tuition of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Tuition impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2026) | ~296 | +6 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2028) | ~308 | +18 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2030) | ~320 | +30 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Santa Barbara County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment -61.9% vs. county +11.4% AND stability (3.4%) below the county median. Recruitment and retention both under pressure — likely a foundational rather than tactical problem.
169 of 175 students who enrolled at Providence this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (96.6% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
Financial profile — IRS Form 990, FY2023
From 13 years of Form 990 filings via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (free public IRS data). The school's tax filings show financial scale, fundraising health, and endowment trajectory — signals that drive board-level conversations about tuition pricing, financial-aid capacity, and capital projects.
Source: IRS Form 990 via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (EIN 952105233). Tuition-per-student is total program-service revenue divided by latest enrollment — a rough average that includes auxiliary revenue (athletics, food service, etc.); the actual published tuition can differ. Form 990 is filed annually under penalty of perjury, so the financial scale figures are authoritative.
Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.
Providence — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Private · Other religious · Santa Barbara · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 62% (21→8 from 2020 to 2025), trailing the peer-group median of -8%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+2.0%/yr); projects to ~308 by 2028.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | Private · Other religious | 290 | — | -62% |
| Peer-group median | 47.9% | -8% | ||
| Providence High School | Private · Catholic | 497 | 56.7% | +25% |
| Villanova Preparatory School | Private · Catholic | 266 | 49.0% | -14% |
| Saint Bonaventure High School | Private · Catholic | 412 | 36.4% | -31% |
| LA Reina High School | Private · Catholic | 271 | 53.6% | -38% |
| Grace Brethren High School | Private · Other religious | 339 | 36.4% | -54% |
| Hillcrest Christian School | Private · Other religious | 417 | — | +83% |
| Ojai Valley School | Private · secular | 307 | 38.1% | -16% |
| Thacher School the | Private · secular | 257 | 46.8% | +2% |
| Cate School | Private · secular | 306 | 50.7% | -3% |
| Oak Grove School | Private · secular | 212 | — | +260% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type, and religious orientation. Methodology →
GPA figures reflect 2021 — UC has not yet released applicant/admit GPA for 2024.
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) '21 | Avg GPA (Adm) '21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |