Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Hillcrest Christian School → Louisville High School → LA Reina High School → Crespi Carmelite High School → Providence → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-6.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At tuition of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Tuition impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2026) | ~317 | -22 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2028) | ~278 | -61 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2030) | ~244 | -95 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Edit the figure to match your school.
Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.
Grace Brethren High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Private · Other religious · Simi Valley · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Grace Brethren High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 9): 36% vs. a peer median of 49%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 20 points since 2020.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 54% (100→46 from 2020 to 2025), trailing the peer-group median of -5%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-6.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~278 by 2028 — about 61 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 61 fewer students. At a tuition of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual tuition revenue at risk.
Estimate seeded by other religious private school typical — wide range: Jewish day $25k–35k, Lutheran/Christian $10k–18k. NCES doesn't publish per-school tuition; adjust to your school's actual figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Brethren High School | Private · Other religious | 339 | 36.4% | -54% |
| Peer-group median | 49.0% | -5% | ||
| Hillcrest Christian School | Private · Other religious | 417 | — | +83% |
| Louisville High School | Private · Catholic | 353 | 44.3% | +6% |
| LA Reina High School | Private · Catholic | 271 | 53.6% | -38% |
| Crespi Carmelite High School | Private · Catholic | 428 | 60.8% | -16% |
| Providence | Private · Other religious | 290 | — | -62% |
| Saint Monica Catholic Hs | Private · Catholic | 367 | 57.8% | +17% |
| Pacifica Christian Hs | Private · Other religious | 259 | 57.6% | +29% |
| Santa Clarita Christian School | Private · Other religious | 538 | 8.8% | -18% |
| Saint Genevieve High School | Private · Catholic | 547 | 19.0% | +25% |
| Shalhevet High School | Private · Other religious | 237 | 20.6% | -53% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type, and religious orientation. Methodology →
GPA figures reflect 2024 — UC has not yet released applicant/admit GPA for 2025.
UC funnel — which kids are getting in at what GPA
Combining the school's applicant pool GPA, admit pool GPA, actual admit rate, and statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, we can read which GPA tiers tend to get in — and which don't.
| Campus | 4.00+ GPA | 3.70–3.99 GPA | 3.30–3.69 GPA | < 3.30 GPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | Strong shot | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Santa Barbara | Strong shot | Moderate | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Irvine | Strong shot | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Davis | Strong shot | Real shot | Moderate | Filtered out |
The numbers behind it
| Campus | Applicant GPA | Admit GPA | Lift ⓘ | Admit rate | vs peer schools @ same GPA ⓘ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego (2023) | 4.16 | 4.24 | +0.08 | 31.2% | Peers +0.16 · wider |
| UC Santa Barbara (2023) | 4.00 | 4.27 | +0.27 | 35.7% | Peers +0.25 · matches |
| UC Irvine (2023) | 3.99 | 4.20 | +0.21 | 31.2% | Peers +0.23 · matches |
| UC Davis (2023) | 4.02 | 4.19 | +0.17 | 41.7% | Peers +0.20 · matches |
📊 Statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, 2024 (for reference)
| GPA band | UCB | UCLA | UCSD | UCSB | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00+ | 17.1% | 14.4% | 43.5% | 57.3% | 46.0% | 64.1% |
| 3.70–3.99 | 2.8% | 1.5% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 27.5% |
| 3.30–3.69 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 9.1% |
| 3.00–3.29 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| < 3.00 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) '24 | Avg GPA (Adm) '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | — |
| UC Davis → | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |