Natomas Charter
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Inderkum High School → Westlake Charter → Grant Union High → Rio Linda Senior High School → Rio Linda High → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+0.5%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,909 | +10 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,929 | +30 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,949 | +50 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Sacramento County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Natomas Charter outperformed Sacramento County on enrollment (school +16.7% vs. county +3.0%) AND maintains 92.8% stability. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working.
42 of 586 students who enrolled at Natomas Charter this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (7.2% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Natomas Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 29.9%
Federal: 12.0%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Natomas Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+20.0 pp above peer median (19.6%) · Ranked #2 of 10 similar schools
18.6%
53.4%
39.6%
Higher than 79% of California high schools (1142 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Natomas Charter's UC Reach of 39.6% is in the top quartile statewide (median 18.6%; top 25% bar 34.2%) — but it's still below the top-10% bar of 53.4%.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 95.1% — a gap of 55 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Natomas Charter's UC Reach is higher than 79% of California high schools (1142 ranked).
Natomas Charter — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Natomas Charter sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 10): 40% vs. a peer median of 20%.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 17% (114→133 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +1%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+0.5%/yr); projects to ~1929 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natomas Charter | Public | 1899 | 39.6% | +17% |
| Peer-group median | 19.6% | +1% | ||
| Inderkum High School | Public | 2169 | 28.5% | -1% |
| Westlake Charter | Public | 1492 | 38.1% | -17% |
| Grant Union High | Public | 2124 | 15.7% | +20% |
| Rio Linda Senior High School | Public | 1641 | 9.4% | +1% |
| Rio Linda High | Public | 1641 | — | -1% |
| River City High School | Public | 2099 | 19.6% | +7% |
| Rio Americano High School | Public | 1930 | 22.8% | +25% |
| Mira Loma High School | Public | 1679 | 45.4% | -5% |
| Antelope High School | Public | 1781 | 14.3% | +1% |
| Hiram W Johnson High School | Public | 1637 | 8.3% | +18% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 33 | 4 | 3 | 12.1% | 2.9% | 75.0% | — | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 33 | 3 | — | 9.1% | 2.2% | — | — | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 28 | 8 | 3 | 28.6% | 5.8% | 37.5% | — | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 27 | 10 | — | 37.0% | 7.2% | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 25 | 4 | — | 16.0% | 2.9% | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | 47 | 26 | 11 | 55.3% | 18.7% | 42.3% | — | — |