Lucerne Valley High School
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Most similar nearby schools
High Desert Premier Academy → Shadow Ridge → Mojave River Academy - Rockview Park → Mojave River Academy Route 66 → Encore Jr./Sr. High School For The Performing And Visual Arts → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+6.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~344 | +21 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~389 | +66 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~440 | +117 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Bernardino County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
On the surface Lucerne Valley High School looks fine — enrollment is +76.7% vs. San Bernardino County +0.0%, and 82.8% of students stay through year-end. But <strong>chronic absenteeism is at 32.8%, up +12.9 pts since 2016-17 (county median 25.1%). Disengagement leads departure — families pull back from the day-to-day before they formally leave. The demand signal usually follows within 2–3 years.
61 of 355 students who enrolled at Lucerne Valley High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (17.2% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 12.9 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Lucerne Valley Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 17.6%
Federal: 16.2%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Lucerne Valley Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
Lucerne Valley High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Lucerne Valley · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 77% (43→76 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -24%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+6.4%/yr); projects to ~389 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucerne Valley High School | Public | 323 | — | +77% |
| Peer-group median | 5.7% | -24% | ||
| High Desert Premier Academy | Public | 273 | — | +240% |
| Shadow Ridge | Public | 380 | — | +22% |
| Mojave River Academy - Rockview Park | Public | 367 | — | +256% |
| Mojave River Academy Route 66 | Public | 425 | — | +18% |
| Encore Jr./Sr. High School For The Performing And Visual Arts | Public | 477 | — | -54% |
| San Andreas High | Public | 337 | — | -27% |
| Summit Leadership Academy-High Desert | Public | 275 | — | -29% |
| Mojave High School | Public | 210 | — | -27% |
| Big Bear High School | Public | 636 | 5.7% | -21% |
| Asa Charter | Public | 350 | — | -46% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA → Elite | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | — |