Erma Duncan Polytechnical High
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Most similar nearby schools
Crescent View West Public Charter → Sanger West High School → Washington High → Mclane High School → Fresno High School → Compare all similar →No UC admissions data on file for Erma Duncan Polytechnical High.
This school doesn't appear in UCOP's source-school records (it may send few or no applicants to UC). Its enrollment trend and similar-school comparison are still below.
Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+0.9%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,200 | +11 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,223 | +34 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,246 | +57 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Fresno County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Erma Duncan Polytechnical High outperformed Fresno County on enrollment (school +28.6% vs. county +6.7%) AND maintains 94.0% stability. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working.
72 of 1,209 students who enrolled at Erma Duncan Polytechnical High this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (6.0% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 9.1 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Fresno Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 12.4%
Federal: 15.6%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Fresno Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
Erma Duncan Polytechnical High — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 29% (210→270 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -3%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+0.9%/yr); projects to ~1223 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erma Duncan Polytechnical High | Public | 1189 | — | +29% |
| Peer-group median | 7.5% | -3% | ||
| Crescent View West Public Charter | Public | 1624 | — | -22% |
| Sanger West High School | Public | 1492 | 7.3% | +25% |
| Washington High | Public | 1065 | — | +24% |
| Mclane High School | Public | 2037 | 14.2% | +40% |
| Fresno High School | Public | 1857 | 11.1% | -19% |
| Herbert Hoover High School | Public | 2035 | 5.1% | +24% |
| Central East High School | Public | 1729 | 7.5% | -53% |
| Roosevelt High | Public | 2154 | — | +1% |
| Central High School | Public | 908 | 6.1% | -31% |
| Justin Garza High School | Public | 1818 | 11.0% | -6% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →