Central High School
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Liberty High → Washington High → Kerman High School → Erma Duncan Polytechnical High → Justin Garza High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~906 | -2 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~901 | -7 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~897 | -11 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Fresno County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Central High School's enrollment is shrinking 4.3× the county rate (school -31.2% vs. county +7.2%). Stability of 87.9% means every family you keep is one fewer; the leverage is at recruitment, not retention. This is the case the high stability number alone would hide. Chronic absenteeism is also at 32.1% (up +1.2 pts from 2021-22) — engagement and demand are both signaling decline.
81 of 670 students who enrolled at Central High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (12.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is in the typical CA HS range. Worth monitoring alongside the demand and retention signals above.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Central Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 18.3%
Federal: 13.3%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Central Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-5.0 pp vs. peer median (11.1%) · Ranked #8 of 8 similar schools
18.5%
11.1%
53.3%
6.1%
Higher than 6% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Central High School's UC Reach of 6.1% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Central High School's UC Reach is higher than 6% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Central High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Fresno · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Central High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #8 of 8): 6% vs. a peer median of 11%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has held roughly steady since 2023.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 31% (218→150 from 2022 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +9%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~901 by 2029 — about 7 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 7 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central High School | Public | 908 | 6.1% | -31% |
| Peer-group median | 11.1% | +9% | ||
| Liberty High | Public | 775 | 12.1% | +59% |
| Washington High | Public | 1065 | — | +24% |
| Kerman High School | Public | 1509 | 7.7% | +10% |
| Erma Duncan Polytechnical High | Public | 1189 | — | +29% |
| Justin Garza High School | Public | 1818 | 11.0% | -6% |
| Central East High School | Public | 1729 | 7.5% | -53% |
| Fowler High School | Public | 796 | 25.6% | +8% |
| Crescent View West Public Charter | Public | 1624 | — | -22% |
| Caruthers High School | Public | 657 | 13.5% | +29% |
| Fresno High School | Public | 1857 | 11.1% | -19% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine | 4.21 | 80.0% | 36.2% | +43.8pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 4.06 | 40.0% | 33.4% | +6.6pp | Over |
UC Outcomes Trend — 2023–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 5 | 4 | — | 80.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.21 | — |
| UC Davis → | 10 | 4 | — | 40.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.06 | — |