Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Buena Vista High → Palisades High (continuation) → Marce Becerra Academy → North Bay Met Academy → Loconoma Valley High → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-23.6%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2021) | ~5 | -2 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2023) | ~3 | -4 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2025) | ~2 | -5 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
El Molino High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Forestville · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, El Molino High School is admitting at roughly +13 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.936) alone would predict (43% actual vs. 30% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 100% (1→2 from 2018 to 2020), outpacing the peer-group median of -11%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-23.6%/yr), enrollment projects to ~3 by 2023 — about 4 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 4 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Molino High School | Public | 7 | — | +100% |
| Peer-group median | — | -11% | ||
| Buena Vista High | Public | 6 | — | +100% |
| Palisades High (continuation) | Public | 6 | — | +50% |
| Marce Becerra Academy | Public | 21 | — | +36% |
| North Bay Met Academy | Public | 28 | — | -76% |
| Loconoma Valley High | Public | 14 | — | -20% |
| Windsor Oaks Academy | Public | 38 | — | -24% |
| Carpe Diem High (continuation) | Public | 19 | — | -50% |
| Johanna Echols-Hansen High (continuation) | Public | 20 | — | +7% |
| Laguna High | Public | 61 | — | -2% |
| Valley Oaks High (alternative) | Public | 30 | — | -61% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | 4.06 | 33.3% | 26.6% | +6.8pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.94 | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.84 | 69.2% | 36.2% | +33.0pp | Over |
Where El Molino High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 13.4 points above what their GPAs predict (43.2% actual vs. 29.8% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2021
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2021
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 9 | 3 | — | 33.3% | — | — | 4.06 | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 15 | 4 | — | 26.7% | — | — | 3.94 | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | — |
| UC Davis → | 13 | 9 | 3 | 69.2% | — | 33.3% | 3.84 | 4.04 |