Coleville High School
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Tioga High → Evergreen High School → Don Pedro High → Lee Vining High School → Dario Cassina High → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-4.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~42 | -2 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~39 | -5 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~36 | -8 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Mono County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Coleville High School outperformed Mono County on enrollment (school +0.0% vs. county -42.4%) AND maintains 91.7% stability. Replicable model — worth documenting what's working. Chronic absenteeism is rising (29.2%, +29.2 pts since 2016-17) — a watch signal worth monitoring as a leading indicator.
4 of 48 students who enrolled at Coleville High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (8.3% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 29.2 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Eastern Sierra Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 73.6%
Federal: 12.7%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Eastern Sierra Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
Coleville High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Coleville · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 0% (14→14 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +38%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-4.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~39 by 2029 — about 5 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 5 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleville High School | Public | 44 | — | +0% |
| Peer-group median | — | +38% | ||
| Tioga High | Public | 45 | — | -11% |
| Evergreen High School | Public | 45 | — | +91% |
| Don Pedro High | Public | 42 | — | +43% |
| Lee Vining High School | Public | 40 | — | +33% |
| Dario Cassina High | Public | 40 | — | +4% |
| Ahwahnee High School | Public | 50 | — | +156% |
| Spring Hill High (continuation) | Public | 37 | — | +1600% |
| Monarch Academy | Public | 37 | — | +100% |
| Independence High (continuation) | Public | 53 | — | -7% |
| Vallecito Continuation High | Public | 36 | — | -38% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UCLA → Elite | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |