VALLEY SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.3%/year, projecting from 2024's 180 students:
≈ 20 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $17,128 per student in district revenue, the 20 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $342,560/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SILVERTON SCHOOL SILVERTON |
Public | 19.7 | 57 | +7.5% |
| MOTLEY COUNTY SCHOOL MATADOR |
Public | 26.8 | 54 | +8.0% |
| LOCKNEY H S LOCKNEY |
Public | 31.6 | 130 | -5.8% |
| FLOYDADA COLLEGIATE H S FLOYDADA |
Public · charter | 33.6 | 229 | +21.2% |
| FLOYDADA ISD DAEP FLOYDADA |
Public | 34.1 | 2 | — |
| MEMPHIS H S MEMPHIS |
Public | 35.3 | 117 | -17.0% |
| HEDLEY SCHOOL HEDLEY |
Public | 39.1 | 25 | — |
| CLARENDON H S CLARENDON |
Public | 39.5 | 128 | -10.5% |