TIOGA SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.0%/year, projecting from 2024's 664 students:
≈ 65 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $14,792 per student in district revenue, the 65 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $961,480/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PILOT POINT H S PILOT POINT |
Public | 5.5 | 482 | +7.8% |
| COLLINSVILLE H S COLLINSVILLE |
Public | 5.5 | 171 | +8.9% |
| GRAYSON COUNTY SPECIAL EDUCATION SSA GUNTER |
Public | 9.8 | — | — |
| GUNTER H S GUNTER |
Public | 9.9 | 368 | +3.4% |
| CELINA H S CELINA |
Public | 11.5 | 1,322 | +32.6% |
| WHITESBORO H S WHITESBORO |
Public | 12.4 | 508 | +9.2% |
| AUBREY H S AUBREY |
Public | 13.4 | 1,135 | +35.1% |
| S AND S CONS H S SADLER |
Public | 13.9 | 301 | -3.2% |